Capacity characteristics of the European and Ural Arctic seaports: Development scenarios

Abstract

Subject. This article analyzes the capacity and cargo turnover of the European and Ural Arctic seaports. Objectives. The article aims to develop scenarios for the development of seaports of the European and Ural Arctic, which will help predict their cargo turnover and determine opportunities for capacity growth. Methods. For the study, we used statistical, systems, and comparative analyses. Results. Based on the analysis of the current capacities and cargo turnover of the European and Ural Arctic seaports, the article develops polynomial regression models to obtain forecast values for the ports of Murmansk and Sabetta for 2022. It identifies factors that may adversely affect the development of the port infrastructure of the Arctic basin, and presents four scenarios for the development of the port infrastructure of the region, taking into account the proposed projects to increase the capacities of the European and Ural Arctic seaports. Conclusions. Given the improvement of Russia's security and the strengthening of transport links with the Asia-Pacific region through the Northern Sea Route, the construction of a seaport in Indiga Bay and a railway to it from Sosnogorsk is the most important project.