Capabilities in Context: National Attributes and Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Abstract

National capability can contribute to an explanation of foreign policy behavior if research is sensitive to the role of political context and the systems of which nations are a part. A nation's capability constrains and induces its policy and high-capability states are likely to be the dominant members of a system. Propositions related to both 'rank' and 'social field theory' are useful for understanding the level of interaction among states. The nature of that interaction, though, is largely a product of a political context promoted and reinforced by the behavior of states. These ideas can be applied to the Middle East where the gap between the regional rich and the poor has grown and the former have assumed a regional role commensurate with their capability. As the role of pan-Arabism has changed, capabilities have become important explanations for how regional states behave. A model composed of seven variable blocs is tested across 91 dyads for two five-year periods: 1957-1961 and 1968-1972. While designed to test the role of power capabilities, the model incorporates a variety of 'contextual' variables often emphasized in the literature on the Middle East region: ideology, regional linkage with the global system, regional bipolarity, domestic politics and economic exchange, and examines two dyadic dimensions of conflict and cooperation. The results indicate at least partial support for this study's hypotheses and approach, and the related assessments of Middle East politics.