CAP and LSM as determined by VCTE are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in the US adult population.

Abstract

Data retrospective cohort studies have shown that liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE, FibroScan) can predict mortality in patients with NAFLD, however, its ability to predict mortality at a population level is unknown. We investigated the ability of LSM and controlled-attenuation parameter (CAP) by TE to predict mortality in a prospective US cohort. A total of 4192 US adults aged ≥18 years enrolled in the National Health, and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2017-2018) with reliable information on CAP and LSM by TE were included in this analysis. All-specific and cause-specific mortality were ascertained by linkage to National Death Index records through December 31, 2019. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI. During a mean follow-up of 24.4 months, there were 68 deaths (1.6%). CAP (adjusted HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.0-1.05), and LSM (adjusted HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) were independently associated with overall mortality. NAFLD by CAP ≥285 had a 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.0-4.7) increased odds of mortality compared with non-NAFLD. Cumulative mortality rates were significantly higher in participants with LSM of 9.7-13.5 (advanced fibrosis) and LSM ≥13.6 (cirrhosis) as compared with LSM <9.7; p value for trend across groups <0.01. LSM ≥13.6 displayed the highest mortality risk (adjusted HR: 3.2, 95% CI: 1.3-7.8). Compared with LSM <10 [absence of advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD)], LSM 10-19.9 (likely ACLD), and ≥20kPa (likely ACLD with clinically significant portal hypertension) conferred a 3.4-fold (95% CI: 1.0-13.8) and 5.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2-22.3) increase in hazards of mortality. Our study findings highlight the importance of liver health as a predictor of overall mortality at a population level.