Canine vector-borne disease: mapping and the accuracy of forecasting using big data from the veterinary community.

Stella C W Self,Dwight D Bowman,Robert B Lund,Heather S Walden,Christopher Carpenter,Jenna R Gettings,Yan Liu,Michael J Yabsley,Christopher S Mcmahan,Shila K Nordone

doi:10.1017/s1466252319000045

Abstract

Diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of vector-borne disease (VBD) in pets is one cornerstone of companion animal practices. Veterinarians are facing new challenges associated with the emergence, reemergence, and rising incidence of VBD, including heartworm disease, Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and ehrlichiosis. Increases in the observed prevalence of these diseases have been attributed to a multitude of factors, including diagnostic tests with improved sensitivity, expanded annual testing practices, climatologic and ecological changes enhancing vector survival and expansion, emergence or recognition of novel pathogens, and increased movement of pets as travel companions. Veterinarians have the additional responsibility of providing information about zoonotic pathogen transmission from pets, especially to vulnerable human populations: the immunocompromised, children, and the elderly. Hindering efforts to protect pets and people is the dynamic and ever-changing nature of VBD prevalence and distribution. To address this deficit in understanding, the Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC) began efforts to annually forecast VBD prevalence in 2011. These forecasts provide veterinarians and pet owners with expected disease prevalence in advance of potential changes. This review summarizes the fidelity of VBD forecasts and illustrates the practical use of CAPC pathogen prevalence maps and forecast data in the practice of veterinary medicine and client education.

Highlights

Over the last several decades, health care providers, scientists, and public health officials have observed a disconcerting trend in infectious diseases: the emergence and reemergence of numerous pathogens
Zoonotic pathogens are roughly 1.9 times more likely to be emerging than non-zoonotic pathogens; vector-borne pathogens are about 2.3 times more likely to be emerging than non-vector-borne pathogens (Taylor et al, 2001)
These factors are dynamic; as a result, it is expected that the incidence, prevalence, and spatial distribution of vector-borne disease (VBD) will continue to change

Summary

Introduction

Over the last several decades, health care providers, scientists, and public health officials have observed a disconcerting trend in infectious diseases: the emergence and reemergence of numerous pathogens. A number of factors are thought to contribute to the increasing incidence of diseases caused by vector-borne pathogens These include (1) warmer winters and other temperature and humidity alterations that are occurring as a result of climate change (Eisen et al, 2015), (2) suburbanization, which brings people, wildlife, domestic animals, and pathogens together, (3) an increase in white-tailed deer or other wildlife species that support ticks and/or serve as reservoirs of infection, (4) migratory birds that carry ticks or pathogens to new areas, (5) the modern emphasis on the preservation of open space and the replanting of trees, and (6) the reduced use of insecticides (Loh et al, 2015). These factors are dynamic; as a result, it is expected that the incidence, prevalence, and spatial distribution of vector-borne disease (VBD) will continue to change

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