Candidate-driven ticket splitting in the 2000 Japanese elections

Abstract

I offer a candidate-centered explanation for split-ticket voting patterns in the 2000 lower house elections in Japan. Drawing upon individual-level and aggregate data, I accurately estimate ticket splitting in Japan for the first time. I argue that ticket splitting in the mixed electoral system is frequently the result of unequal competition among the parties’ district candidates. Parties such as the LDP with more candidates fare much better in the SMD balloting than in the PR vote. This, and the disproportionality of the SMD vote–seat translation, contributes to the LDP's electoral victory. The analyses also demonstrate the difficulty of estimating ticket splitting in multiparty settings and validate the assumption that PR votes reflect sincere party preferences.