Cancer risk of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the soils from Jiaozhou Bay wetland

Abstract

To estimate the cancer risk exposed to the PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, a probabilistic health risk assessment was conducted based on Monte Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the input variables that contribute most to the cancer risk assessment. Three age groups were selected to estimate the cancer risk via four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, food ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation). The results revealed that the 95th percentiles cancer risks for children, teens and adults were 9.11×10−6, 1.04×10−5 and 7.08×10−5, respectively. The cancer risks for three age groups were at acceptable range (10−6–10−4), indicating no potential cancer risk. For different exposure pathways, food ingestion was the major exposure pathway. For 7 carcinogenic PAHs, the cancer risk caused by BaP was the highest. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the parameters of exposure duration (ED) and sum of converted 7 carcinogenic PAHs concentrations in soil based on BaPeq (CSsoil) contribute most to the total uncertainty. This study provides a comprehensive risk assessment on carcinogenic PAHs in Jiaozhou Bay wetland soils, and might be useful in providing potential strategies of cancer risk prevention and controlling.