Cancer mortality predictions for 2021 in Latin America.

Greta Carioli,Paola Bertuccio,Paolo Boffetta,Matteo Malvezzi,Eva Negri,Fabio Levi,Carlo La Vecchia

doi:10.1097/cej.0000000000000702

Abstract

We estimated cancer mortality statistics for the current year in seven major Latin American countries, with a focus on colorectal cancer. We retrieved official death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization databases. We analysed mortality from all neoplasms combined and for selected cancer sites. We estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for the year 2021 using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries considered for both sexes, with the exception of Argentinian women. The lowest total mortality rates were predicted in Mexico (65.4/100 000 men and 62.3 in women), the highest ones were in Cuba (133.3/100 000 men and 91.0 in women). Stomach cancer rates have been decreasing since 1970 in all countries; colorectal cancer started to decline over recent calendar periods. Rates for this cancer were unfavourable in the youngest age group. Lung cancer trends declined in males and remained comparatively low in all countries except Cuba. In Cuba, lung cancer rates in women overtook those for breast. Mortality from cancers of the breast, (cervix) uterus, ovary, prostate and bladder, as well as leukemia mostly showed favourable trends. A marked variability in rates across Latin American countries persists, and rates were relatively high for stomach, uterus, prostate and lung cancers, as compared to Europe and North America, suggesting the need to improve preventive strategies. Colorectal cancer mortality was relatively low in Latin America, except in Argentina, and short-term predictions remain moderately favourable.

Highlights

National cancer mortality data have been available for a few Latin American countries since the 1970’s
Since death certification figures are available with a few years lag, predictions of cancer mortality for the current year have been published over several years for the USA [3] and the European Union (EU) [4], and have proven reasonably valid [3, 5]
Total cancer mortality rates in Argentina, Cuba and Chile were similar to those registered in Europe, North America and in Japan [11], but they were appreciably lower for both sexes in other Latin American countries considered

Summary

Introduction

National cancer mortality data have been available for a few Latin American countries since the 1970’s. These showed relatively low rates for common cancers, including lung, colorectum and breast, in most countries, and relatively high rates, but with downward trends, for stomach and (cervix) uterus [1, 2]. We predicted the number of deaths and mortality rates for all cancers and selected major cancer sites for 2017 in seven Latin America countries providing death certification data of acceptable validity to the World Health Organization (WHO) database. From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. Mortality from major cancers – including lung and prostate – and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management

Methods

Results

Conclusion