Abstract
BackgroundTo provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai.MethodsThe estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) for the whole period and for the time segments in age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were evaluated with Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were modeled to examine the effects of age, period and birth cohort on cancer incidence.ResultsThe overall ASR decreased slightly and significantly in males (EAPC of −0.41) but increased significantly in females (EAPC of 0.57) during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. The incidence trend was not linear and varied by time segments. During the most recent 10 years (2001–2010), the ASR in males decreased by 1.65 % per year and stabilized in females. Incidence rates continued to decline during 1973–2010 for esophagus, stomach, and liver cancer in both sexes, as well as male lung cancer and cervix cancer. It should be noted that it was the first time to document a significant decline in lung cancer incidence among males during 1973–2010 with EAPC of −0.58 %, and a notable upward for cervix cancer since 1996 with EAPC of 8.94 %. Unfavorable trends in incidence were observed for the most common cancer sites in the 38 years period: colorectum, gallbladder & biliary tract, pancreas, kidney, bladder, brain & central nervous system (CNS), thyroid, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and ovary. APC analysis showed age, period and birth cohort yielded different effects by cancer sites.ConclusionsThe observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyles in urban Shanghai over the past four decades.
Highlights
To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai
The current study examined the temporal changes on age-adjusted cancer incidence rates and change points in
All cancer incidence data were derived from the Shanghai Cancer Registry (SCR), an associate member of the International Association of Cancer Registries (IACR)
Summary
To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. The population-based cancer registry is an indispensable tool for providing data for planning and evaluation of programs for cancer control. There is no national cancer reporting system and a few local cancer registries have collected data on cancer incidence long enough to allow the analysis of sequential trends in China [1]. Bao et al BMC Cancer (2016) 16:284 long-term trends for all cancers combined and for the top 18 site-specific cancers from 1973 through 2010 in urban Shanghai by sex. The comprehensive analysis of cancer variation trends in a long history perspective can provide basic information for making the planning and prioritization of prevention activities, and to spur additional research into the causes of these observed changes
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