Cancer Costs Projected to Reach at Least $158 Billion in 2020

Abstract

The estimated total cost of cancer care in the United States in 2020 is expected to be $158 billion, assuming the most recent observed patterns of incidence, survival, and cost remain the same. This represents a 27% increase from 2010 due solely to the projected aging and growth of the US population, according to a study published online January 12th in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute. However, the authors also note the cost of cancer care could rise even more quickly under other reasonable assumptions, such as a 2% annual increase in costs of the initial and final phases of cancer care. Cancer disproportionately affects the elderly population, which is expected to increase from 40 million in 2009 to 70 million in 2030. With changes in risk factor prevalence and stage at diagnosis, and development of new diagnostic tools and treatments for cancer in the 1990s, cancer incidence declined and survival improved, but cancer care became more expensive. Under a different scenario of continuing trends in cancer incidence, survival, and costs of care, the total cost of cancer care in 2020 is expected to be $173 billion, an even larger increase (39% from 2010). To estimate the national medical cost of cancer care through the year 2020 for 13 cancers in men and 16 cancers in women, Angela Mariotto, PhD, and colleagues from the National Cancer Institute analyzed data on cancer incidence (the rates of newly diagnosed cancer in any given year) and survival from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (available at: http://seer.cancer.gov/) and Medicare expenditures associated with cancer from the linked SEER-Medicare database (available: http://healthservices.cancer.gov/seermedicare/). They combined prevalence (the population rates of people alive with cancer in any given year) and cancer costs by phase of care and used US Census population projections to calculate cancer care costs through 2020. The researchers projected prevalence by phase of care under different assumptions about future incidence and survival. Incidence is decreasing for cancers at most sites. But even with declining incidence rates, the absolute number of individuals diagnosed with cancer will continue to increase because of population changes. The researchers also projected costs by phase of care under different assumptions about future trends. “Costs of care for cancer patients who die of their disease follows a U-shaped curve, with the highest costs in the initial phase following diagnosis and the phase before death, and the lowest costs in the period in-between, the continuing phase,” the authors state.