Abstract
The effect of changes in rates of mortality, fertility, and migration depend not only on the age-specific patterns and levels of these rates, but on the age structure of the population. In order to remove the influences of the age structure and concentrate on the impact of the demographic rates themselves, a common practice is to analyze the influences of the rates for a standard age structure. This paper adapts the general approach of using a standard age structure to a stationary population equivalent (SPE) model, and analyzes current population change, using the SPE model, for provinces of Canada. Below-replacement fertility levels are only partially offset by net immigration. The SPE model evidences the decrease in the eventual provincial populations brought about by the below replacement fertility. Out-migration for some provinces to other areas of Canada accentuates their eventual population decreases.
Highlights
There is some public policy interest in affecting the settlement patterns of immigrants in Canada
This situation is appropriate for the current Canadian population, when public policy debate focuses on consequences of immigration levels — yet the eventual demographic situation is not clear from observation of current rates
The Espenshade model involves a constant number and age structure of immigrants. We find it useful to adapt our stationary population equivalent (SPE) model to handle immigration in the fashion advocated by Espenshade, the SPE model is not limited to this particular framework for immigration
Summary
There is some public policy interest in affecting the settlement patterns of immigrants in Canada This paper considers subnational patterns in the SPE model for provincial populations of Canada: the effect of provincial variations in mortality, the age-sex structure of in-migrants and out-migrants, and fertility levels. Migration effects have several complexities: (a) migrants move both in and out of a population, (b) migration takes different forms, such as international and internal, (c) migration streams usually vary in their age and sex composition, and (d) migrants may have different fertility levels than the resident population. This paper expands on previous work with an approach for modelling the effects of migration on a hypothetical stationary population and shows the effects of internal and international migration on Canadian provincial population growth. This paper investigates the impact of migration — both internal and international — on the hypothetical future population (the SPE) of Canadian provinces
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