Canadian Exceptionalism: Explaining Differences over Time in Provincial and Federal Voter Turnout

Abstract

Canada is unusual among advanced industrial democracies in having some provinces which regularly have greater voter turnouts for provincial than for federal elections. Provincial and federal turnouts by province in Canada are analyzed for the 1945-1998 period using multiple regression analysis, both for each set of elections and by comparing differences between the two. Federal turnout has declined over the years but provincial turnout appears to have increased slightly. Although the effects found here largely confirm previous findings about the relative effects of different types of variables found for the Canadian federal level only, several of the political explanations previously supported in cross-national research find less support. Instead, region, population density, months since the last federal or provincial election, and season of the year generally have greater and sometimes more consistent effects. This suggests the need for more studies of turnout in democracies at sub-central levels.