Canadian debates about China's rise: Whither the “China threat”?

Abstract

All states confronted with China's ‘rise’ have witnessed an internal debate about the economic, political and military threats and opportunities it presents. Likewise, Canadian pundits, scholars and policymakers have debated the political and economic implications of China's rise. However, absent from this debate has been any mention of the strategic or military implications of China's rise for Canada. This is particularly striking given that Canada's closest ally, the United States, and Canada's closest partners in East Asia are all witnessing active debates about the military dimension of China's rise. This paper canvasses the Canadian discourse on China's growing international profile and assesses the implications for Canada's policy towards China and East Asia. It argues that if Ottawa is serious about engaging China and the region, it will need to have a conversation about the extent and nature of the military aspects of China's rise. This is not least because the strategic consequences of China's rise have recently been laid bare by China's posture towards its neighbours, which has arguably triggered balancing behaviour in favour of the United States. If the Canadian government is serious about developing a strategy for Asia, it had best determine its policy position on strategic and military issues involving China and East Asia.