Canadian calibration on Mechanistic - Empirical Pavement Design Guide to estimate International Roughness Index (IRI) using MTO data

Abstract

This paper presents flexible pavement performance models developed for the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) by using data from the MTO's Pavement Management System (PMS2). The performance model coefficients have been developed for application in the Mechanistic - Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) and were calibrated using statistical tools through a series of analyses on historical pavement condition data that was collected in the field. The statistical analysis involved collection of historical data and development of pavement model categories. It was then classified according to pavement type, equivalent total pavement thickness, traffic volume, soil type, and climatic zone. In the development of the performance curves, 75% of the data was used to calibrate the performance curves, which is described by the predicted Pavement Condition Index (PCI) as a function of pavement age in years. The remaining 25% of the data was used to validate the various performance models using various statistical tools. The procedure and analysis methodology used in the development of the performance models are presented in the paper.The paper provides a practical framework for comparing existing PMS2 flexible performance curves to performance predictions obtained from the MEPDG. Example case studies for typical Ontario roads are presented in the paper in terms of statistical analysis method.