Canada, Quebec, and the United States: Some Second Thoughts

Abstract

Fourteen months ago I was among several American political scientists who contributed articles to these pages assessing situation in Canada and Quebec immediately after October 1995 Sovereignty Referendum. At that time I offered some projections about Canada and Quebec that fell into five separate categories: What were fundamental problems in Canada/Quebec relationship? What seemed likely to happen in post-Referendum Quebec? What was likely to happen in post-Referendum Canada including Quebec? What was likely to happen in English-speaking Canada? And what was likely character of post-Referendum relationships among United States, Quebec, and Canada? The editor of this journal has agreed to let us revisit relationship between Quebec and Canada and assess accuracy of our prior efforts. To my knowledge, this is unique, but not necessarily comfortable, opportunity. In 1995 I wrote that relationship between English-speaking Canadians (1) and Quebeckers was characterized by a pattern of consistent and persistent reinforcing vertical cleavages that had drawn into question for many Quebec Francophones the need for shared division of political labor (with English-speaking Canadians) and resulting sense of political community (479-80). These attitudinal differences developed over long period of time and, in consequence, it is not surprising that nothing has happened to change it in last fourteen months. For many French-speaking Quebeckers their primary and terminal political identification remains with Quebec, not Canada. If basic problem dividing Canada and Quebec has not changed, what can be said about situation in Quebec? Perhaps most important change within Quebec has been growth of ethnic nationalism. It would appear to an American observer that gulf between Quebec's Francophones, on one side, and Anglophones and Allophones, on other, has widened. Two very recent examples will illustrate this point. First, efforts of Quebec government to restructure its school system have elicited demands from English-speaking Quebeckers that their right to education in English would be best protected by constitutional amendment. The Parti Quebecois government has refused to consider such constitutional change. What is important here is not that there is political dispute about language of school instruction, for that is familiar issue, but that it has elicited only thinly veiled ethnic responses. (2) Second, this kind of overt division was further illustrated by Premier Bouchard's speech to CEGEP audience in Saint-Georges-Beauce, where he reminded Quebeckers that they are a people... not diluted in Canadian people. (3) While it may be premature to say that genie of ethnic nationalism is out of bottle in Quebec, it seems to me that cork to that bottle has been significantly loosened. In 1995 I suggested that people of Quebec were probably tired of question of separation or sovereignty and that I doubted that there would be another referendum on that issue in next two years. Further, I suggested that Parti Quebecois government would have to spend good deal of post-Referendum time on routines of governing. It would appear that I was right on both scores. In fairness, however, I also suggested that I thought that government of Quebec would be likely to adopt strategy in which it portrayed itself as protector of social welfare programs that federal government was abandoning. The actions of Bouchard government have not been as I expected and, indeed, Salomon Brothers, Inc., New York investment firm, recently released report praising economic policies of Quebec in regard to deficit reduction. (4) In recent months it has become clear that Mr. Bouchard has determined that reason Yes side lost 1995 Referendum is that too many Quebeckers worried about economic impact of sovereignty. …