Abstract
Can we successfully monitor a population density decline of elusive invertebrates? A statistical power analysis on Lucanus cervus
Highlights
Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for nature conservation in order to understand and counter its current loss due to anthropogenic disturbances (Jones et al 2015; Lindenmayer and Likens 2010; Reynolds et al 2011)
One of the main methodological problems for population trend analysis is the use of a relative abundance measure to estimate the absolute population size (e.g. Bried and Pellet 2012; LaCommare et al 2012; Williams and Thomas 2009)
A linear relationship might often be reasonable, several exceptions have been mentioned including differential population declines across sexes or life-history stages (Shea et al 2006; Reynolds et al 2011)
Summary
Monitoring global biodiversity is essential for nature conservation in order to understand and counter its current loss due to anthropogenic disturbances (Jones et al 2015; Lindenmayer and Likens 2010; Reynolds et al 2011). The stag beetle is included in the second annex of the European Habitats Directive and species specific protection and monitoring is mandatory for every member state As this species can only be observed during a very narrow time window (Campanaro et al 2016; Harvey et al 2011a), it can be argued that monitoring this species would yield insufficient data to evaluate its population trend. Data have been used from three transects in north-western Europe which have been monitored nearly daily for seven up to ten years to parameterize a simulation model that estimates the stag beetles’ relative abundance This model is adjusted to include a population decline of 1%/year and used for a Monte-Carlo simulation. We hypothesize that despite a very narrow window of activity and a high variability in abundance, the stag beetle can still be successfully monitored with a moderate monitoring cost when the monitoring scenario is adapted to the phenology of this species
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