Can we provide appropriate tools to measure the effectiveness of climate agreements? The Paris agreement and the role of the European External Action Service

Abstract

Can we provide appropriate tools to measure the effectiveness of climate agreements? How effective will, for example, the Paris Agreement be? Global emissions levels can be applied as a sole measure of performance. Current emission trends predict 2.7 degrees of temperature increase in the year 2100. The challenge rests in both the unavailability or difficulty of compiling proper data and information and the dynamic aspect which demands estimates of future developments. Furthermore, we argue that regime performance should be evaluated against a non-regime benchmark and compared to the objectives that the regime is created to achieve. In the case of the Paris Agreement, our measurement tools find that the agreement is likely to make a difference but far from sufficient to reach the 1.5-degree target. Reaching the 1.5-degree target is only possible if new negative emission technologies are developed and implemented unrealistically fast. To make the Paris Agreement successful, swift political action is, therefore, necessary from central institutional actors such as the European Union. In particular, climate diplomacy through the European External Action Service may channel the knowledge about measurement tools to partners worldwide.