Can we predict bleeding at admission in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever?

Abstract

BackgroundIn Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, bleeding has a significant impact on the prognosis of the disease. In our study, we aimed to identify independent risk factors for the development of bleeding in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and to contribute to the management of the disease. MethodsCases with a definitive diagnosis of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever were divided into two groups: those who developed bleeding and those who did not. Demographic, clinical and laboratory parameters were subjected to logistic regression analysis in terms of risk factors for bleeding development. Cut-off values for numerical variables were determined by receiver operating characteristics. ResultsA total of 74 patients diagnosed with CCHF were included in the study. Bleeding occurred in at least one defined focus in 21 patients. In the multivariate logistic regression model, procalcitonin, days from symptom onset to admission, platelet count, and d-dimer were identified as independent risk factors for bleeding development. Procalcitonin had the most significant effect, with an approximately 5.3-fold increase in bleeding risk for each unit increase in its level. For discriminate bleeding, LDH and ferritin exhibited the highest sensitivity, while procalcitonin showed the highest specificity. ConclusionThis study demonstrates the potential use of specific clinical and laboratory variables to predict bleeding development in CCHF patients. Procalcitonin elevation and the time from symptom onset to hospital admission have a significant effect in predicting bleeding.