Abstract
Recent reports have indicated that China, India and Russia are headed for a major public health calamity with regard to AIDS if indeed the calamity is not already upon these countries. It is therefore of some concern that there is uncertainty associated with existing estimates of the number of HIV infected individuals in India. According to a report, the US Central Intelligence Agency has predicted that India will have 25 million AIDS cases by 2010 (National Intelligence Council, USA 2002). The Government of India was quick to point out that these estimates are exaggerated. The World Bank has projected 10.9 million AIDS cases by 2024 (The Hindu, 17 November 2002), on the assumption that adequate intervention measures are implemented (table 1). The National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) (2002), the nodal agency for HIV surveillance in India has estimated 3.97 million HIV cases by the end of year 2001. In this article, I try to highlight the importance of accuracy of HIV estimates. I assume that infection by HIV in an individual is a strong indicator of the future development of AIDS.
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