Abstract
As we speed through the development and distribution of a vaccine for the COVID-19 pandemic, economies are suffering through the worst decline of the century while, at the same time, being pushed to comply with global agreements regarding climate change. Because of this, the economic downturn is also seen as an opportunity to speed up the sustainability transition or, in simple terms, to achieve a “green recovery”. What can we expect from a green recovery? We address this question by reviewing position documents in the debate between green recovery and its opponent, “quick rebound”, in the Netherlands. We apply systems thinking to model causal arguments regarding key concepts comprising green recovery and identify issues of consensus and dissensus. Our findings indicate that green recovery is promising for curbing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing growing socioeconomic inequalities. However, the position of what green recovery means for economic growth, including the development of gross domestic product and employment, is still largely unclear and at times contradictory. While some see tradeoffs, others suggest that economic growth and sustainability goals can be achieved simultaneously. Thus, we conclude by reflecting on the question: Can we have our cake and eat it?
Highlights
COVID-19 has shaken up global economies to an extent comparable to the GreatDepression [1]
Five topics related to the effects of green recovery emerged from analyzing the debate between “quick rebound” and “green recovery”
We found that there is a debate within the area of green recovery itself
Summary
COVID-19 has shaken up global economies to an extent comparable to the GreatDepression [1]. Governments have responded to past economic crises with various measures ranging from austerity to tariff increases This time, there is large emphasis on worker subsidies and government spending policies. Elliott [21] analyzed the impact of the Asian 1997 crisis and 2008 Global financial crisis and concluded that their effect on the environment is counterintuitive because it starts out being positive only to end up being negative. This transition into a negative effect is partly explained by an increased pressure on the environment because of lowered economic output from the crisis, which results in further environmental degradation either in legal or illegal ways [22]. The arising environmental crisis and apparent negative effects of economic crises make a strong case for green recovery: the economic and environmental crisis need to be tackled collectively through strong policy frameworks
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