Can USMLE and COMLEX-USA Scores Predict At-Risk Emergency Medicine Residents' Performance on In-Training Examinations?

Abstract

The United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) and Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination (COMLEX) scores are standard methods used to determine residency candidates' medical knowledge. The authors were interested in using the USMLE and COMLEX part 2 scores in our emergency medicine (EM) residency program to identify at-risk residents who may have difficulty on the in-training exam (ITE) and to determine the cutoff values under which an intern could be given an individualized study plan to ensure medical knowledge competency. The authors abstracted the USMLE and COMLEX part 2 scores and the American Board of Emergency Medicine (ABEM) ITE scores for a cohort of first-year EM residents graduating years 2010-2022, converting raw scores to percentiles, and compared part 2 and ABEM ITE scores with Pearson's correlation, a Bland-Altman analysis of bias and 95% limits of agreement, and ROC analysis to determine optimal the cut-off values for predicting ABEM ITE < 50th percentile and the estimated test characteristics. Scores were available for 152 residents, including 93 USMLE and 88 COMLEX exams. The correlations between part 2 scores and ABEM ITE were r = 0.36 (95%CI: 0.17, 0.52; p < 0.001) for USMLE and r = 0.50 (95%CI: 0.33, 0.64; p < 0.001) for COMLEX. Bias and limits of agreement for both part 2 scores were -14 ±63% for USMLE and 13 ± 50% for COMLEX in predicting the ABEM ITE scores. USMLE < 37th percentile and COMLEX < 53rd percentile identified 42% (N = 39) and 27% (N = 24) of EM residents, respectively, as at risk, with a sensitivity of 61% and 49% and specificity of 71% and 92%, respectively. USMLE and COMLEX part 2 scores have a very limited role in identifying those at risk of low ITE performance, suggesting that other factors should be considered to identify interns in need of medical knowledge remediation.