Can TROPOMI NO2 satellite data be used to track the drop in and resurgence of NOx emissions in Germany between 2019–2021 using the multi-source plume method (MSPM)?

Abstract

Abstract. NOx is an important primary air pollutant of major environmental concern which is predominantly produced by anthropogenic combustion activities. NOx needs to be accounted for in national emission inventories, according to international treaties. Constructing accurate inventories requires substantial time and effort, resulting in reporting delays of 1 to 5 years. In addition to this, difficulties can arise from temporal and country-specific legislative and protocol differences. To address these issues, satellite-based atmospheric composition measurements offer a unique opportunity for the independent and large-scale estimation of emissions in a consistent, transparent, and comprehensible manner. Here we test the multi-source plume method (MSPM) to assess the NOx emissions over Germany in the COVID-19 period from 2019–2021. For the years where reporting is available, the differences between satellite estimates and inventory totals were within 75–100 kt (NO2) NOx (<10 % of inventory values). The large reduction in the NOx emissions (∼15 %) concurrent with the COVID-19 lockdowns was observed in both the inventory and satellite-derived emissions. The recent projections for the inventory emissions of 2021 pointed to a recovery of the 2021 emissions towards pre-COVID-19 levels. In the satellite-derived emissions, however, such an increase was not observed. While emissions from the larger power plants did rebound to pre-COVID-19 levels, other sectors such as road transport did not, and the change in emissions is likely due to a reduction in the number of heavier transport trucks compared to the pre-COVID-19 numbers. This again illustrates the value of having a consistent satellite-based methodology for faster emission estimates to guide and check the conventional emission inventory reporting. The method described in this work also meets the demand for independent verification of the official emission inventories, which will enable inventory compilers to detect potentially problematic reporting issues, bolstering transparency and comparability, which are two key values for emission reporting.