Can the cocoa cycle model explain the continuous growth of the rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) sector for more than a century in Thailand?

Abstract

According to the cocoa cycle model constructed over the four centuries of cocoa history, after a commodity boom in a region, there comes a recession. When the world price increases again, that region can benefit marginally or has at least to wait for a long period before rebounding; meanwhile, a new region takes over. The case of the Thai rubber economy with continuous, long-term growth shows that several factors—ecological (physiology of the crop), technical (high yielding planting material), political (strong support from public policy) and social (important role of local populations)—can explain some of the divergence from the cocoa cycle model. This suggests a need to update and enrich the model with new scenarios and options.