Can the CFE Treaty Survive Russian Non-Compliance?

Abstract

In November 1990 16 North Atlantic Treaty Organization and 6 Warsaw Treaty Organization states signed the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) which set equal limits for each Alliance on five categories of military equipment. Within the Atlantic to the Urals zone of application the treaty defined four subzones, each with specific sub-limits, and restricted the movement of equipment from one zone to another. This chapter assesses the viability of the CFE Treaty and explores the issues likely to dominate the forthcoming Review Conference. In early October 1993, Vladimir Zhurbenko, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, suggested that the North Caucasus Military District be redefined as a rear district, thereby removing it from flank-zone limits. At the same time he asserted that forces would be deployed to trouble spots in the Caucasus and elsewhere even if this conflicted with CFE limits.