Can Sudan achieve food security during the next decade?: some forecasts of self-sufficiency in cereals

Abstract

This paper gives some insights about the problem of food security in Sudan and provides forecasts for the levels of production and consumption of the main cereals, namely sorghum, wheat and millet. Descriptive statistics and regression analysis were used as tools of analysis. Assuming exponential growth of production and consumption of cereals over time we provided forecasts for the levels of production, consumption, and self sufficiency in cereals during 2008/09-2019/20. The results showed that the self-sufficiency ratio is less than100% for almost all the seasons, meaning that Sudan suffered from food insecurity during the period 1986/87-2008/09. The forecasts of production and consumption of food crops during the period 2008/09-2019/20 indicated that Sudan will continue to suffer from food insecurity. Based on these results, the study suggests that clear and sound agricultural strategies should be adopted to ensure availability and accessibility of food crops for all people at all times. In this respect, agricultural policies should motivate producers of food crops to enhance productivity. Key words: Food security, cereals, production, consumption, self-sufficiency.