Can Structural Indicators of Trade Explain Why EU Candidate Countries Are Integrating Slowly?

Abstract

ABSTRACT The paper discusses whether “enlargement fatigue,” slowing down the European Union integration process of 6 Candidate Countries (C6), can be explained by the poor economic and trade performance of those economies, especially in trading with the EU. We comprehensively analyzed the merchandise trade of those economies with the EU in 2007–2018 using numerous quantitative techniques and applying a very high level of data disaggregation. First, the value of similarity indicators between the C6’s export and EU import structures and indices of intra-industry trade was calculated. Then we controlled for additional factors: the changes in C6’s exports (imports) to the EU through shares of goods at higher levels of processing, as well as their export (import) specialization. The conclusion is that the weak trade performances of C6 are not the cause of enlargement fatigue, as these economies saw moderate structural improvements in their trade with the EU.