Abstract
Fictitious economy connects with real economy in many aspects. The interaction between stock markets and macro-economy is becoming more and more crucial for different parties in the whole economic society. On the basis of the Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method, this paper used the quarterly and monthly data of seven pairs of time series to analyse the dynamic lead-lag connections between the macro-economic fluctuation and the stock market change. The results suggest that the data of stock market can be used to predict the macro-economic variables for most time periods. Investors as an important agent in the stock markets, their expectations can be reflected by stock prices. The irrationality of investors can affect the” barometer” function of stock markets.
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