Abstract
Geoffrey Rose’s prevention paradox obtains when the majority of cases with an adverse outcome come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a minority ‘high risk’ group. Preventive treatment is then better targeted widely than on the ‘high risk’ minority. This study tests whether the prevention paradox applies to the initiation of criminal behaviour, as recorded in longitudinal administrative data from Denmark. Children born in 1984 are followed from birth to early adulthood. A discrete-time Cox model allows for changing covariates over time. The initiation of criminal behaviour is defined as getting a police record between the ages of 15 and 22 as a result of a criminal matter. This outcome was predicted, more accurately than by chance, by a combination of over twenty risk factors, reflecting the major crime reduction paradigms. However, it seems impossible to identify a minor group (<5%) in the population from whom criminals are exclusively recruited. Our example illustrates how the applicability of Rose’s prevention strategy, population based, rather than targeted, depends on how narrowly ’high-risk group’ is defined, for a given distribution of estimated risk, and allows for the possible complementarity of population and targeted measures.
Highlights
It is often found that a small group of individuals is responsible for a sizeable proportion of all offending activity
Studies in Britain and Denmark find that about 6% of offenders account for more than half of offending activity (Piquero, Farrington, & Blumstein, 2007; Kyvsgaard, 2002). They imply that the targeting of crime prevention on these high-risk individuals at an early stage, before they have started their criminal career, could bring large benefits to the community, as well as the individuals themselves. This supports an approach to crime prevention which focuses on the few who are most likely to become involved in breaking the law
Among the risk factors, whose mean person years are listed in the second column of table 2, parental mental illness during childhood was registered during 11% of person years from 15 to 22
Summary
It is often found that a small group of individuals is responsible for a sizeable proportion of all offending activity. Studies in Britain and Denmark find that about 6% of offenders account for more than half of offending activity (Piquero, Farrington, & Blumstein, 2007; Kyvsgaard, 2002) They imply that the targeting of crime prevention on these high-risk individuals at an early stage, before they have started their criminal career, could bring large benefits to the community, as well as the individuals themselves. This supports an approach to crime prevention which focuses on the few who are most likely to become involved in breaking the law. Targeting the minor high risk group in that case may be ineffective
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