Can Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Alter the Direction of Global Textiles and Clothing Trade? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract

The purpose of the article was to investigate the criticality of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to the direction of the international trade regime of the textiles and clothing (T&C) sector. The reason for selecting this sector is because RCEP block exported 50% of the global share of T&C products in 2019. Besides, this industry has been quite important from an employment generation point of view and a leading earner of foreign exchange for many nations around the world. Given the free trade agreement and an ambitious approach towards removing the majority of tariff lines pertaining to this sector, RCEP can potentially alter the direction of T&C trade and have related spillover benefits and trade-off in the global supply chain. This study undertakes an evaluative investigation through computable general equilibrium modelling. The article tries to analyse the impact of a potential free trade agreement specific to the RCEP block on the member nation’s gross domestic product, exports, industrial production, employment and welfare. The impact on exports is reportedly a mixed bag where countries such as China and Vietnam stand out to gain enormously while a few others are expected to lose. On similar lines, production in this sector appears to rise for RCEP members such as Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, China and Cambodia while for other members the same is seen to decline. Also, T&C trade is noticed to divert away from non-RCEP members. An important policy implication for non-member RCEP nations is to ratify individual trade agreements pertaining to T&C trade. The study shows the mitigation of the trade diversion effect of RCEP by taking India’s example and incorporating its free trade agreements in T&C trade with RCEP non-member country like the UK and then with RCEP nation like Australia. The supposed trade agreements of India have been incorporated in the main model along with RCEP.