Can Raising the Stakes of Election Outcomes Increase Participation? Results from a Large-Scale Field Experiment in Local Elections

Daniel R Biggers,David J Hendry,Alan S Gerber,Gregory A Huber

doi:10.1017/s0007123421000600

Abstract

AbstractPolitical campaigns frequently emphasize the material stakes at play in election outcomes to motivate participation. However, field-experimental academic work has given greater attention to other aspects of voters' decisions to participate despite theoretical models of turnout and substantial observational work signaling that a contest's perceived importance affects the propensity to vote. We identify two classes of treatments that may increase the material incentive to participate and test these messages in a large-scale placebo-controlled field experiment in which approximately 24,500 treatment letters were delivered during Connecticut's 2013 municipal elections. We find some evidence that these messages are effective in increasing participation, as well as that some of them may be more effective than typical nonpartisan get-out-the-vote appeals. While these results remain somewhat preliminary, our findings have important implications for our understanding of how voters decide whether to participate and how best to mobilize citizens who would otherwise sit out elections.

Highlights

A common theme in campaign communications is that one must vote because who wins the upcoming election is a matter of enormous consequence
We first assess the average effect on turnout of receiving the baseline GOTV message so that we can benchmark the effects of the other treatments to this baseline
A central message of political campaigns is the substantial stakes of the contest in question

Summary

Introduction

A common theme in campaign communications is that one must vote because who wins the upcoming election is a matter of enormous consequence. Across the tax treatments, we hold constant that we provide information about the importance of local elections for setting local taxes and the town’s mill rate, potential mechanisms to generically increase the stakes of these contests.

Results

Conclusion