Abstract
From the early 1960s to the early 1980s, the officially recorded output of cocoa in Ghana declined by 60%. During the 1983--95 Economic Recovery Programme, however, the official output of cocoa doubled. Although these developments have inspired much empirical research, most of the studies have been unable to explain the medium-term persistence of cocoa output in remaining below its estimated capacity level. The paper argues that the price incentive to smuggle can explain as much as one-half of the observed decline in official output from its trend and the subsequent recovery. A co-integration analysis and a dynamic error-correction model of cocoa supply support the analysis. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.
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