Can pregnancy terminations explain the decline in the birth rate?

Abstract

Birth rates in Norway are declining, and fewer women are having more than two children. Pregnancy termination may impact birth rates. We aimed to study the distribution of pregnancies in Norway according to parity, and whether the proportions of pregnancies ending in termination has changed. We retrieved figures for pregnancies in Norway during the period 2008-20, based on number of births in the Medical Birth Registry and number of pregnancy terminations in the Registry of Pregnancy Termination. We calculated the proportion of pregnancies resulting in termination according to parity and year. The sum of births and pregnancy terminations fell by 16.4% during the study period. The absolute decline was most pronounced among nulliparous women, from 34647 in 2008 to 28606 in 2020 (17.4% decline). Of these, the proportion of pregnancies that resulted in a pregnancy termination fell from 25.2% to 20.5%. The proportion of pregnancy terminations among women with two, three, four or more previous births was 26.1%, 34.6% and 28.2% in 2008, and 26.1%, 34.0% and 29.1% in 2020, respectively. Both the number of births and the number of pregnancy terminations in Norway fell during the period 2008-20, in all parity groups. The decline was most pronounced in nulliparous women. The number of pregnancy terminations fell more than the number of births. Pregnancy terminations can therefore not explain the decline in birth rates in Norway.