Abstract
The fluctuations of the stock market — the price changes per unit time — seem to deviate from Gaussians for short time steps. Power laws, exponentials, and multifractal descriptions have been offered to explain this short-time behavior. Microscopic models dealing with the decisions of single traders on the market have tried to reproduce this behavior. Possibly the simplest of these models is the herding approach of Cont and Bouchaud. Here a total of Nt traders cluster together randomly as in percolation theory. Each cluster randomly decides by buy or sell an amount proportional to its size, or not to trade. Monte Carlo simulations in two to seven dimensions at the percolation threshold depend on the number N of clusters trading within one time step. For N ∼ 1, the changes follow a power law; for 1 ≪ N ≪ Nt they are bell-shaped with power-law tails; for N ∼ Nt they crossover to a Gaussian. The correlations in the absolute value of the change decay slowly with time. Thus percolation not only describes the origin of life or the boiling of your breakfast egg, but also explains why we are not rich.
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