Can native species compete with valuable exotics? Valuing ecological changes in the Lake Michigan recreational fishery

Abstract

The Chinook salmon population in Lake Michigan is declining precipitously due to ecological changes, and the impact on recreational fishing value is unknown. We estimate a conditional logit model to characterize how Wisconsin resident anglers react to changes in species-specific availability and catch rates. Using these results, we calculate the non-market value of access to the fishery that reflects current, historical, and potential future fishing conditions. We then predict whether native lake trout and walleye, which are more resilient to the changing conditions in the lake, can maintain the fishery’s value if non-native Chinook salmon collapses. Results show that while large losses would occur absent other improvements, a portion of the fishery’s value could be maintained if substitute species, particularly walleye, improved in quality and were readily accessible.