Can Military Normalization in Japan and Opcon Transfer in South Korea Enhance Regional Stability? A Conflict Management Framework for Rivalry Dyads

Abstract

Much conventional thinking on conflict in Northeast Asia assumes Japan’s military normalization and South Korea’s operational control (opcon) transfer will increase tensions and heighten the risks of violent conflict. This paper will argue it is time to review and reassess such thinking by asking whether military normalization in Japan and opcon transfer in South Korea can enhance regional stability and peace. Using an interdisciplinary approach comprised of theoretical elements from the literature on rivalry dyads, historical grievance discourse analysis and conflict management, this paper creates a framework of ‘conflict management process flow’ in an attempt to lessen issue dissonance and reassess these two policies. The paper begins with a basic introduction of the issue at hand, followed by an explanation of what is termed a process map of conflict management flow-a tool for reframing rivalries. Section three is a general discussion of tensions and conflict in NE Asia, guided by the concepts of rivalry dyad and status dilemma. The paper proceeds with two case study sections. The first being an examination of military normalization by Japan and its possible affect on rival neighbors; the second discussing the issue of opcon transfer in South Korea and its possible affect on rival neighbors. The paper concludes with thoughts on the prospects for enhanced regional stability should military normalization in Japan and opcon transfer in South Korea occur. This paper may be unique in its attempt to evaluate these policies as elements of the conflict management process and harbingers of peace.