Can Marine Cloud Brightening Reduce Sea-Surface Temperatures to Moderate Extreme Hurricanes and Typhoons?

Abstract

Elevated sea-surface temperatures are a necessary but not sufficient requirement for the formation of hurricanes and typhoons. This paper suggests a way to exploit this. Twomey [1] showed that cloud reflectivity depends on the size-distribution of cloud drops, with a large number of small drops reflecting more than a smaller number of larger ones. Mid-ocean air is cleaner than over land. Latham [2-4] suggested that reflectivity of marine stratocumulus clouds could be increased by releasing a submicron spray of filtered sea water into the bottom of the marine boundary layer. The salt residues left after evaporation would be mixed by turbulence through the full depth of the marine boundary layer and would be ideal cloud condensation nuclei. Those that reached a height where the air had a super-saturation above 100% by enough to get over the peak of the Köhler curve would produce an increased number of cloud drops and so trigger the Twomey effect. The increase in reflection from cloud tops back out to space would cool sea-surface water. We are not trying to increase cloud cover; we just want to make existing cloud tops whiter. The spray could be produced by wind-driven vessels cruising chosen ocean regions. The engineering design of sea-going hardware is well advanced. This paper suggests a way to calculate spray quantities and the number and cost of spray vessels to achieve a hurricane reduction to a more acceptable intensity. It is intended to show the shape of a possible calculation with credible if not exact assumptions. Anyone with better assumptions should be able to follow the process.