Can macroeconomic factors explain equity returns in the long run? The case of Jordan

Abstract

There is a growing literature on how macroeconomic variables can have effects on equity returns in both developed and emerging stock markets. We test for the long run relationship between some key macroeconomic indicators and equity returns in Jordan. Using both General-to-Specific (GETS) methodology and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, we find that the trade surplus, foreign exchange reserves, the money supply and oil prices are important macroeconomic variables which have long run effects on the Jordanian stock market. The results are broadly consistent with similar studies carried out for other emerging economies.