Abstract
The present work provides an analysis of the potential impact of fossil-based Low Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) for the European aviation sector, with a time horizon to 2050. LCAF are a crude-derived alternative to kerosene, offering some Green House Gas (GHG) savings, and have been defined by ICAO as eligible fuels for mitigating the environmental impact of aviation. A methodological framework to evaluate the EU technical potential for LCAF production is developed, based on data on crude utilization for jet fuel production in EU refineries, relevant carbon intensity reduction technologies, market prices, and aviation fuel volumes. Two different baselines for fossil-derived kerosene carbon intensity (CI) are considered: a global figure of 89 gCO2e/MJ and an EU-27-specific one of 93.1 gCO2eq/MJ. Three scenarios considering increasing levels of CI reduction are then defined, taking into account the current and potential commercial availability of some of the most relevant carbon intensity reduction technologies. The analysis demonstrates that, even if LCAF could offer GHG saving opportunities, their possible impact, especially when compared to the ambition level set in the most recent European legislative proposals, is very limited in most of the analysed scenarios, with the exception of the most ambitious ones. At 2030, a non-zero technical potential is projected only in the higher CI reduction scenario, ranging between 1.8% and 14.2% of LCAF market share in the EU-27 (equal to 0.6 to 4.75 Mtoe), depending on the considered Baseline for CI. At 2050, almost all considered scenarios project a larger technical potential, ranging between 6.9% and 22.2% for the global Baseline (2.21 to 7.13 Mtoe), and between 1.8% and 16.2% for the EU-27 Baseline (0.58 to 5.2 Mtoe). LCAF additional costs to current production costs are also discussed, given their relevance in large-scale deployment of these technologies, and are projected to range between 39 and 46.8 USD/toe.
Highlights
The aviation sector accounted for 3.8% of total CO2 emissions and 13.9% of total Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from transport in 2017 at EU-level [1]
The work is organized into two distinct but interconnected parts: in the first part, the Well-to-Wake (WtW) jet fuel Carbon Intensity (CI) baselines are assessed, and the appropriate Carbon Intensity Reduction Technologies (CIRT) that can potentially be applied to the oilfields and at EU refineries level to produce Lower Carbon Aviation Fuel (LCAF), are identified
The LCAF threshold CI is 80.1 gCO2eq/MJ, meaning that a reduction of 8.9 gCO2eq/MJ as compared to the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) fossil jet fuel CI value is needed for the production of an eligible LCAF
Summary
The aviation sector accounted for 3.8% of total CO2 emissions and 13.9% of total GHG emissions from transport in 2017 at EU-level [1]. The Clean Energy Package [5] provided the policy and regulatory instruments to support the achievement of the targets: beyond 2030, the EU 2050 long-term strategy [6] calls for carbon-neutrality at 2050. In this frame, the European Green Deal [7] represented the ambition of the EU to reduce GHG emissions by −55% by 2030 and set the foundations to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. To implement the increased ambition of the −55% target, the European Commission presented the “Fit for 55” package [8] in July 2021, which introduced legislative proposals to revise the entire EU 2030 climate and energy framework. The ReFuel EU Regulation sets targets for SAF and synthetic kerosene (e-kerosene), in terms of shares of the final sectoral energy consumption up to 2050, scaling up at the EU level similar approaches already followed by several member states, such as Norway, Sweden, Finland, Spain, France, and the Netherlands, in their NECPs (see [10])
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