Abstract
This study employs financial simulation modelling, including use of the Monte Carlo technique, to project oil and gas activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf to 2050 with an oil price scenario gradually rising from 2019 onwards to reach $100 per barrel in real terms in 2050. The Monte Carlo modelling was employed to project the distributions of the sizes of new discoveries and their costs. The modelling was undertaken on a full data set of undeveloped discoveries, and was conducted separately using a data set of all the undeveloped discoveries in the 5 main geographic areas of the UKCS. A key finding was that from 2017 to 2050 around 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent could be produced, with the great majority of the current undeveloped discoveries being exploited. But a key requirement for this outcome is that unit development and operating costs were constrained to current levels in real terms.
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