Can LDN data provide corroborating evidence for a Lightning event at a specific geographic location?

Abstract

In many cases of lightning attachment, the exact timing of the event is unknown (property damage, loss of life etc.) making comparison with LDN data difficult. A methodology for matching data from a Lightning Detection Network (LDN) with to a possible location of attachment using only the reported positions of strokes is proposed. A case study of lightning attachment to a tall structure (Brixton Tower, Johannesburg, South Africa) is used to evaluate of the methodology. Photographs of the lightning attachments are time-correlated with data from the South African Lightning Detection Network (SALDN) and these results are compared with the results of the methodology. It is found that the methodology returns 40% false positive results and further evidence is needed to distinguish the time-correlated matches from the false positive results. The median confidence ellipses provided for each stroke are also investigated but it appears that this does not provide the evidence needed to do this. It is concluded that LDN data can provide corroborating evidence of lightning attachment to a location but cannot be used in isolation.