Can Landuse Landcover changes influence the success of India's national clean air plans ?

Abstract

India implemented a range of multifarious strategies to address the issue of substandard air quality. One such flagship scheme of government of India is National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), which recommends sector specific reduction in emissions and increase in forest cover etc. To reduce particulate matter concentrations by 40% in 2026 compared to 2019. The present study aims to gauge the impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes alone on success of NCAP, using weather research forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and integrated geographical information system and remote sensing software Terrset. The findings elucidate that, by the year 2026, the Ventilation Coefficient (VC) in India's eastern, central, northern, and north-eastern regions is anticipated to register a decline ranging from 18% to 50% compared to the baseline year of 2019. Conversely, an increase of 17% is expected in the southern region. The alterations in Fallow Land, Barren and sparsely vegetated land, Urban and Built-up Land, and Tundra, contribute to these shifts, displaying varying percentage changes across distinct zones. Simulations indicate that these LULC changes are impeding the planned reduction in PM2.5 levels. Projections suggest an increase in PM2.5 levels as high as 13% in the eastern, central, northern, and north-eastern regions, accompanied by a decrease of 33% in the Southern zone of the country. Significantly, non-attainment cities in Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra are expected to witness a substantial rise in PM2.5-induced premature mortality, with Pune city projected to experience over 24,525 additional premature deaths by 2026. A comparable examination conducted for the year 2022, utilizing actual LULC data, suggests that if the NCAP fails to effectively implement LULC changes, it may reduce this anticipated trade-off. Addressing this concern, the study employed WRF-Chem to simulate 60 combinations, proposing LULC enhancements conducive to improving VC. The results underscore the critical importance of preserving at least 36% of the LULC category of mixed forest land, encompassing plantations, orchards, and areas under shifting agriculture. Additionally, a reduction in barren land and fallow land emerges as pivotal for enhancing the ventilation coefficient. The study accentuates the necessity of refraining from further expansion in densely populated areas to counter these anticipated VC trends. This study provides valuable insights, highlighting the need to prioritize LULC management to effectively combat the alarming air pollution.