Can innovative industrial clusters enhance urban economic resilience? A quasi-natural experiment based on an innovative pilot policy

Abstract

Using data for 285 cities in China spanning the period from 2010 to 2019, we investigate the overall effect, heterogeneity, and mechanisms of industrial cluster development on urban economic resilience using the staggered difference-in-differences method (DID). Our study shows that innovative industrial clusters can improve local urban economic resilience and offer a cumulative learning effect, but increase economic vulnerability in neighboring cities. A heterogeneity analysis finds that piloting innovative industrial clusters has a more significant influence on economic resilience in more mature clusters, middle-labor-scale cities, areas with moderate economic development, and regions applying more artificial intelligence (AI) technology. An influencing mechanism analysis shows that piloting innovative industrial clusters mainly appears as a scale effect in the earlier stage of green finance development, while there is a network effect in the later stage, both of which promote economic resilience. This conclusion may serve as the foundation for more secure and sustainable growth in the global economy.