Can infrastructure, built environment, and geographic factor negate weather impact on Strava cyclists?

Abstract

Cycling participation is context-sensitive and weather condition is reportedly a significant factor. How weather affects cyclists with different demographics, trip purposes, and in the context of cycling infrastructure, built environment and geographic factors is less well understood by existing literature. This paper applies autoregressive models to explain difference in Strava cycling volume from the same hour of the previous day as a function of change in weather conditions, and day of the week; the contextual effect of cycling infrastructure, built environment and geographic factors is accounted for using interaction terms. We use Strava crowdsourced cycling data in Sydney, Australia, as a case study; commute and leisure cyclists, male and female, young and older cyclists are modeled separately. We find weather conditions have a statistically significant effect on cycling participation; rain, rainfall in the last 2 hours and wind are general deterrents to cycling. Physically separated cycling lanes reduce the adverse effect of precipitation on leisure cyclists and male cyclists but have little effect in retaining commute cyclists and female cyclists. The adverse effect of precipitation and wind on commute cycling is amplified in areas with good access to jobs, possibly due to the availability of better alternative modes of transport. Inland locations generally attenuate effects of windy conditions, except for young adults. This paper sheds light on factors attenuating adverse weather effects on cycling participation and provides useful guidance for future cycling infrastructure.