Can India grow and live within a 1.5 degree CO2 emissions budget?

Abstract

The world of 1.5 degree C requires a global compact and action. Assuming that a fair allocation of global emissions space is made, the question arises can India live within that space? What kind of technological innovations are needed to make it possible? What would be the consequences of such a path for human welfare in India? The model has 25 goods and services and 38 alternative production activities reflecting different technologies to produce these goods or services. The model provides for social welfare measures by the government. The paper explores the consequences of different technological futures and policy regimes using a multi-sectoral inter temporal dynamic optimizing model with endogenous demand. With endogenous income distribution and 20 different consumer classes effects of heterogeneity are accounted. Reductions in costs of renewable power and batteries are stipulated based on projections by various researchers. Also targets for energy efficiency are based on past experience. The scenarios show the importance of technical progress for India can meet its human development goals within a fair emission limit.