Can Hassan Rouhani Succeed where Muhammad Khatami Failed? Internal and International Politics of Reform in Iran

Abstract

The election of Hassan Rouhani to Iran’s presidency in June 2013 once more raised the hopes that the Iranian regime could reform itself and improve its relations with the outside world, especially the United States of America. However, to what extent these expectations are justified? Have Iran’s conditions changed sufficiently to enable Rouhani to succeed, while other reformers like Muhammad Khatami, Iran’s president from 1997 to 2005 failed? This article analyzes the causes of the failure of earlier reformers in Iran, notably Khatami, and will distinguish between the more structural barriers to reform in the Islamic Republic and those related to the dynamics of various political groups. It will also assess the impact of external factors, especially the US attitude toward Iran’s reformers on Khatami’s failure. It will then discuss to what extent Iran’s current internal conditions and the dynamics of its external environment will affect Rouhani’s chances of success.