Can Growing Degree Days and Photoperiod Predict Spring Wheat Phenology?

Muhammad A Aslam,Fayyaz Ul Hassan,Rifat Hayat,Stewart S Higgins,Mukhtar Ahmed,Claudio O Stöckle

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2017.00057

Muhammad A Aslam, Fayyaz Ul Hassan + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00057

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Abstract

Wheat (Triticum aestivum) production in the rainfed area of Pothwar Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to high temperature. The expected increase in temperature due to global warming should result in shorter crop life cycles, and thus lower biomass and grain yield. Two major factors control wheat phenological development: temperature and photoperiod. To evaluate wheat development in response to these factors, we conducted experiments that created diverse temperature and daylength conditions by adjusting the crop sowing time. The study was conducted during 2013-14 and 2014-15 using five spring wheat genotypes, four sowing times, at three sites under rainfed management in Pothwar, Pakistan. Wheat crops experienced more cold days with early sowing, but later sowing dates resulted in higher temperatures, especially from anthesis to maturity. These treatments produced large differences in phenology, biomass production, and yield. To investigate whether growing degree days (GDD) and photoperiod algorithms could predict wheat phenology under these changing conditions, GDD was calculated based on the method proposed by Wang and Engel while photoperiod followed the approach introduced in the APSIM crop growth model. GDD was calculated separately and in combination with photoperiod from germination to anthesis. For the grain filling period, only GDD was calculated. The observed and predicted number of days to anthesis and maturity were in good agreement, showing that the combination of GDD and photoperiod algorithms provided good estimations of spring wheat phenology under variable temperature and daylength conditions.

Highlights

Based on projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) it is expected that the average surface temperature of the world will increase by 1.5–4.5◦C by 2100 if the recent greenhouse gas emission rates continue. Hansen et al (2012) estimated an increase in average universal temperature of 0.18◦C per decade
Spring wheat phenology is driven by both temperature and photoperiod
Increasing temperatures have a significant effect on wheat crop phenology, biomass production, grain yield, and harvest index

Summary

Introduction

Based on projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) it is expected that the average surface temperature of the world will increase by 1.5–4.5◦C by 2100 if the recent greenhouse gas emission rates continue. Hansen et al (2012) estimated an increase in average universal temperature of 0.18◦C per decade. Agricultural productivity is under threat due to climate change all over the globe as predicted by current and future scenarios (van Ogtrop et al, 2014; Ahmad et al, 2017; Dettori et al, 2017). Dwivedi et al (2017) reported yield loss associated with high temperatures in Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP). In their experiments the average temperature during anthesis of late and very late sowing conditions were 2.7◦C and 5.2◦C higher than that of the optimum sowing which resulted in the reduction in grain filling duration by 8.6–12.6 days, and average yield loss of 18 and 34% for late sown and very late sown conditions, respectively

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