Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement

Abstract

Demand shocks lower firm financing premiums by increasing the present value of cash-flow, thereby easing firm financing constraints. We study the effects of unanticipated federal spending shocks on firm investment in the United States using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts with key financial firm-level information. Consistent with the financial accelerator model, our results suggest that 1 dollar of federal purchases increases capital investment of financially constrained firms by 10 to 13 cents over a horizon of 4 quarters, but has no effect on investment of unconstrained firms.