Abstract
The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.
Highlights
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are tools designed to answer questions concerning the future development of environmental and sustainability issues
By focusing on Brazil, the analysis aims to cut through generalisations inherent in global assessments, zoom in on specific assumptions and results, compare them to current trends, and explore whether global IAMs can provide robust insights to specific regions
The Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) project has highlighted that, at a global level, IAMs agree on the importance of biomass and bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure (Bauer et al 2018)
Summary
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are tools designed to answer questions concerning the future development of environmental and sustainability issues They do this by describing the interactions between human activities (such as energy use and agriculture) and environmental factors such as land-cover and climate systems. Climatic Change (2022) 170:2 investigate climate mitigation strategies such as those set out in the Paris Agreement These strategies often show a critical role for bioenergy (Creutzig et al 2015). Quite some attention has been paid to the role of bioenergy in climate change mitigation efforts and the land-use consequences (Bauer et al 2018; Meller et al 2015; Rogelj et al 2018a, b; Rose et al 2014). This paper examines the second point to inform whether IAMs can be relied upon to fulfil the first
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