Can further mitigation of ammonia emissions reduce exceedances of particulate matter air quality standards?

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Abstract Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH3 emissions to PM2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations due to reductions of NH3 emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM2.5 and PM10 limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH3 emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc., …), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe.