Can Famine Be Averted? A Spatiotemporal Assessment of The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in The Luvuvhu River Catchment of South Africa

Geoffrey Mukwada,Sabelo M Mazibuko,Guy M Robinson,Mokhele Moeletsi

doi:10.3390/land10050527

Abstract

Climate change has proved to be a threat to food security the world over. Using temperature and precipitation data, this paper examines the differential effects climate change has on different land uses in the Luvuvhu river catchment in South Africa. The paper uses the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which were calculated from Landsat images, and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for a sample of years between 1980 and 2016 to assess how drought and flood frequency have affected the agricultural environment. The results indicate that the lowest SPI values were recorded in 1996/1997, 2001/2002 and 2014/2015, suggesting the occurrence of drought during these years, while the highest SPI values were recorded in 1997/1998, 2002/2003 and 2004/2005. The relationship between three-month SPI (SPI_3) and VCI was strongest in grassland, and subsistence farming areas with the correlation coefficients of 0.8166 (p = 0.0022) and −0.6172 (p = 0.0431), respectively, indicating that rainfall variability had a high negative impact on vegetation health in those land uses with shallow-rooted plants. The findings of this study are relevant to disaster management planning in South Africa, as well as development of farming response strategies for coping with climate hazards in the country.

Highlights

The Luvuvhu River Catchment Area (LRCA) is a sub-catchment of the Limpopo River Basin (LRB), which covers parts of Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe
Subsistence farming is the dominant form of agriculture in the LRCA [5]
The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the climatic hazards that are most prevalent in the LRCA are more associated with rainfall deficit than with excessive rainfall

Summary

Introduction

The Luvuvhu River Catchment Area (LRCA) is a sub-catchment of the Limpopo River Basin (LRB), which covers parts of Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. The LRCA experiences a subtropical climate, which favours subsistence farming, commercial crops and livestock farming [4], making agriculture the mainstay of the local economy [5,6]. Commercial farming in this province involves the cultivation of coffee, tea, citrus, mangoes, papayas (pawpaw), avocados, bananas, litchis and forestry in high rainfall areas of the Drakensberg and Soutpansberg Mountains [2,3,7], making it a key employer in the region. Limpopo Province is one of the leading producers of maize and export fruits in South Africa [8], demonstrating its importance in food security and

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