Abstract
AbstractA probabilistic evaluation of ensemble forecasts can be used to communicate uncertainty to decision makers. We present a flood forecast scheme, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO‐LEPS, SRNWP‐PEPS and COSMO‐DE (lagged average) ensemble prediction systems with a rainfall–runoff model. The methodology was demonstrated with a case study for the Central European Mulde River basin. In this paper, we summarize results from hindcast simulations for seven events from 2002 to 2008. The ensemble spread resulting from uncertainty in rainfall forecast was very high at 2–5 days lead time. The median of the medium‐ and short‐range forecasts and a lagged average ensemble of the very short‐range forecasts proved to be reliable regarding the probability of exceeding flood alert levels. However, the limited number of observed events does not allow for the postulation of prescriptive binary decision rules. Flood managers have to adapt their decisions when new information becomes available.
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